氏名　Gan Peck Yean
学位の種類　博士（工学）
学位記番号　博甲第460号
学位授与の日付　平成19年3月25日
学位論文題目　Econometric study on long-term renwable energy strategy of Malaysia　（マレーシアにおける長期再生可能エネルギー戦略に関する計量経済的研究）
論文審査委員
　主査　教授　李　志東
　副査　教授　松本　昌二
　副査　准教授　小松　俊哉
　副査　准教授　山口　隆司
　副査　東北大学大学院工学研究科教授　原田　秀樹
　副査　広島大学大学院工学研究科　大橋　晶良

• 論文目次
• 論文要旨
• 論文審査の結果の要旨

［平成19（2007）年度博士論文題名一覧］ ［博士論文題名一覧］に戻る．

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS　p.v
CHAPTER ONE　INTRODUCTION
　1.1　Energy and sustainable development　p.3
　1.2　Literature review on the economy, energy and environment of Malaysia　p.7
　1.2.1 Socio-geography profile　p.7
　1.2.2 Economic development　p.7
　1.2.3 Energy sector　p.9
　1.2.3.1 Policies and regulatory framework related to energy sector　p.9
　1.2.3.2 Energy consumption　p.12
　1.2.3.3 Oil and gas sector　p.23
　1.2.3.4 Peninsular Gas Utilization project　p.30
　1.2.4 Environment　p.32
　1.2.5 Key indicators　p.33
　1.2.5.1 In relations to GDP and TPES　p.33
　1.2.5.2 Per captia indicators　p.34
　1.2.5.3 Comparisons with other countries　p.35
　1.2.6 Summary　p.36
　1.3　Objective of this research　p.37
　1.4　Data collection　p.37
　1.5　Outline of this thesis　p.38
　References　p.38
CHAPTER TWO　LONG-TERM OUTLOOK OF MALAYSIA ECONOMY, ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT
　2.1　Introduction　p.47
　2.2　Past studies on Malaysia energy outlook　p.47
　2.3　Developing integrated econometric model for this study　p.48
　2.3.1 General workflow　p.48
　2.3.2 Model structure　p.49
　2.3.3 Collecting and preparing data　p.50
　2.3.4 Software　p.51
　2.3.5 Some basic concepts about the type of variables and equations　p.51
　2.3.6 Malaysia integrated econometric model　p.53
　2.3.6.1 Macroeconomic sub-model　p.53
　2.3.6.2 Energy-environment sub-model　p.58
　2.4　Performance test　p.66
　2.5　Outlook of Malaysia economy, energy and environment to 2030　p.68
　2.5.1 Scenario description and assumptions　p.68
　2.5.2 Macroeconomic outlook　p.68
　2.5.3 Energy outlook　p.69
　2.5.3.1 Total primary energy consumption outlook　p.69
　2.5.3.2 Final energy demand outlook　p.73
　2.5.3.3 Electricity supply　p.74
　2.5.4 outlook for energy-related carbon emissions　p.76
　2.5.5 Outlook of selected key indicators　p.79
　2.5.6 Summary of main findings　p.81
　2.6　Limitations of this study　p.83
　2.7　Conclusion　p.83
　References　p.83
CHAPTER THREE　RENEWABLE ENERGY DTRATEGY OF MALAYSIA
　3.1　Introduction　p.89
　3.2　Early RE related studies and development in Malaysia　p.93
　3.3　RE potential of Malaysia and status of its utilizations　p.95
　3.4　The development RE in Malaysia after 1999　p.108
　3.5　Promoting the use of RE for power generation　p.110
　3.5.1 Review on the development projects implemented　p.111
　3.5.1.1 BioGen （Biomass-based power generation and cogeneration in plam oil industry）　p.111
　3.5.1.2 SREP （Small renewable energy power program）　p.112
　3.5.1.3 MBIPV （Malaysia building integrated photovoltaic technology application projec）　p.115
　3.5.1.4 Suria 100　p.117
　3.5.2 Review on the progress of BioGen, SREP and Suria 1000 projects　p.118
　3.5.2.1 Biogen　p.118
　3.5.2.2 SREP　p.119
　3.5.2.3 Suria 1000　p.120
　3.5.3 Evaluation on the policy of RE-based power generation in Malaysia　p.121
　3.5.3.1 RE-based power generation cost,buy back rate, and selling terms　p.121
　3.5.3.2 power plants developers and palm oil millers　p.126
　3.5.3.3 Utility company, the buyer　p.128
　3.5.3.4 Financial institutions　p.128
　3.5.3.5 Government commitment　p.128
　3.5.4 Discussions and suggestions　p.128
　3.5.4.1 Pertaining to policy and regulatory framework　p.128
　3.5.4.2 Pertaining to cost　p.132
　3.6　Promoting the use of palm oil-based biofuel transportation　p.132
　3.6.1 Evaluation on the development of palm biodiesel in Malaysia　p.133
　3.6.1.1 Development history　p.133
　3.6.1.2 Production cost　p.134
　3.6.1.3 Domestic use of palm biodiesel　p.135
　3.6.1.4 outlook of feedstock supply　p.138
　3.6.2 Outlook of Malaysia palm biodiesel in the world market　p.139
　3.6.2.1 Palm methyl ester production plants　p.139
　3.6.2.2 Competitiveness as biofuel feedstock　p.142
　3.6.2.3 The barriers　p.145
　3.7　The implications of utilizing RE to the long-term energy and environmental of Malaysia　p.147
　3.7.1 Estimating the potential of RE focusing on palm oil　p.147
　3.7.1.1 Energy potential from palm biomass　p.148
　3.7.1.2 Palm oil-based biofuel potential　p.154
　3.7.2 Evaluating the implications of utilizing RE using integrated econometric model　p.159
　3.7.2.1 Scenario description and assumptions　p.159
　3.7.2.1 Results and discussions　p.160
　3.8　Conclusion　p.162
　References　p.164
CHAPTER FOUR　SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
　4.1　Summary and conclusion　p.185
　4.2　Recommendations for future research　p.188
APPENDICES
　Appendix 1　List of variables　p.191
　Appendix 2　List of equations　p.199
　Appendix 3　Simulation results for Reference scenario　p.213
　Appendix 4　Caluculations of annual surplus energy from palm biomass　p.223
　Appendix 5　Methane gas caluculations　p.225
　Appendix 6　simulation results for RE scenario　p.227
SELECTION OF PUBLICATIONS　p.239

　Energy plays a crucial role in the development of economies and their people. It underpins economic activity, meet the basic needs of the people and contribute to social development. But growth is sustainable only if there is a reliable, uninterrupted supply of energy that does not threaten the environment. At present, there are aspects in the use and supply of energy that are incompatible with the goal of sustainable development. Firstly, we depend primarily on fossil fuels, which are a definite resource, and unequally distributed over regions. Many countries rely on imports, thus, are vulnerable to supply disruptions. Secondly, fossil fuels related pollutants emissions for example GHG poses various negativeimpacts to our environment. Also, there is inequality in access to energy services. Hence, the abundantly available, and clean renewable energy （RE） is positioned as one of the pathways in working towards sustainable development.
　In this thesis, the center objective of this study is to evaluate the long-term RE strategies of Malaysia, and its implications to future energy demand and supply positions, as well as environmental performances of Malaysia, with focus onthe use of RE power generation and as transport fuel. Historical economic growth, energy and environmental performances of Malaysia were reviewed. Over the past20years, Malaysia achieved average economic growth of over 6％. Energy consumption was dominated by fossil fuels at over 99％ of primary energy consumption. Pollutant emissions such as carbon dioxide had increased consistently with increased in energy consumption. The questions of concerns are haw long Malaysia could sustain its oil exporting status? Will the use of coal continually be promoted inthe future and what are the implications to the economy, energy and environment of Malaysia over the long-run?　In relations to this, what are the governmental strategies to secure a reliable energy supply to sustain economic growth in the future? An integrated econometric model, consisting of a macroeconomic sub-model,and energy-environment sub-model was developed, for the projections of Malaysia economic, energy and environment outlook to 2030. Projections under the Referenescenario indicated that Malaysia economic growth is expected to average 4.6％ from 2004 to 2030, and total primary energy consumption will triple by 2003. Coal import will increase following governmental policy of intensifying its use for power generation. Oil import is predicted to take place by 2013 and reach 45Mtoe in 2030. Hence, in near future, Malaysia energy import dependency will rise. Carbon emissions will triple by 2030.
　The development of RE for power generation and as transport fuel in Malaysia were evaluated and analyzed. Simulation results under an alternative RE scenarioshowed that the use of RE is a strategic option to improve long-term energy security and environmental performance of Malaysia. However, findings indicated thatthe development of RE faces some major failings and barriers, due to governmentlsupports and intervention. Issue pertaining to pricing is the most critical barrier. Hence, substantial governmental interventions through the adoption of pricing law to support RE-based power generation, the establishment of subsidy schemeor suitable pricing system implement the use of palm biodiesel in domestic market, as well as sufficient supporting institutional frameworks are necessary.

　本論文は、「Econometric study on long-term renewable energy strategy of Malaysia（マレーシアにおける長期再生可能エネルギー戦略に関する計量経済的研究）」と題し、4章より構成されている。

　第1章「introduction」では、マレーシアにおける過去20年間の経済発展、エネルギー需給および環境汚染物質排出量について分析し、高度経済成長と共に化石燃料消費の急増、エネルギー輸出力の低下、二酸化炭素排出量の急増などの問題が生じたことを明らかにした上で、本研究の目的と範囲を述べている。
　第2章「Long-term outlook of Malaysia economy, energy and environment」では、マクロ経済指標を仮定したうえで行うエネルギー環境分析という従来の分析手法の問題点を明らかにしたと共に、マレーシアのマクロ経済モデル、エネルギーモデルと環境モデルによって構成される統合型計量経済モデルを構築し、シミュレーション分析を行った。マレーシアは2030年までに年平均4.6％の経済成長を維持することが可能であるが、化石エネルギー消費の増大により、石油純輸入国に転落し、エネルギー安全保障問題と環境問題が深刻化することを明らかにした。
　第3章「Renewable energy strategy of Malaysia」では、マレーシアにおける再生可能エネルギーの資源量評価を行い、利用に当たっての政策課題及び利用効果を定性的・定量的に検討し、利用拡大のための政策提言を行った。マレーシアが2030年までの電力需要を賄うほどのパームバイオマスの潜在資源量を持つこと、エネルギー安全保障問題と環境問題の解決に、再生可能エネルギーの利用拡大が重要であり、そのために価格優遇制度の導入や利用環境の整備などの総合戦略が必要であるとの結論を得た。
　第4章「Summary and conclusion」では、本論文で得られた結果と考察を要約し、今後の研究課題を述べている。
　以上のように、本論文はマレーシアを対象に、マクロ経済モデル、エネルギーモデルと環境モデルによって構成される統合型計量経済モデルを構築し、再生可能エネルギーの導入効果と導入促進の政策提言について纏めたものである。本論文はマレーシアだけでなく、東南アジア諸国の環境低負荷型社会の構築にも貢献するところが大きく、博士（工学）の学位論文として十分な価値を有するものと認める。