Risk assessment in supply chain risk: A conceptual framework modeling through case studies (サプライチェーンリスクにおけるリスクアセスメント:ケーススタディを通じた概念フレームワークのモデリング)

学位の種類 博士(工学)
学位記番号 博甲第528号
学位授与の日付 平成22年3月25日
学位論文題目 Risk assessment in supply chain risk: A conceptual framework modeling through case studies (サプライチェーンリスクにおけるリスクアセスメント:ケーススタディを通じた概念フレームワークのモデリング)
 主査 准教授 渡辺 研司
 副査 教授 淺井 達雄
 副査 教授 大里有生
 副査 准教授 五島 洋行
 副査 准教授 アーシュ マーラシンハ

平成21(2009)年度博士論文題名一覧] [博士論文題名一覧]に戻る.

Table of Contents
List of Figures
List of tables
Chapter 1: Introduction
 1.1 Introduction of risk management in supply chain p.1
 1.2 Risk based decision analysis p.4
 1.3 Risk Assessment(RA)and Risk Management(RM) p.5
 1.3.1 Risk Identification p.8
 1.3.2 Risk Analysis p.9
 1.3.3 Risk Evaluation p.10
 1.4 Quantitative risk assessment p.13
 1.5 Supply chain risk management(SCRM) description p.14
 1.6 Introduction of the proposed flamework p.20
 1.7 Scope of the sissertation p.22
 1.8 Organization of the dissertation p.23
Chapter 2: An overview of risk assessment
 2.1 Risk Mapping p.24
 2.1.1 The identification and description of risk factors p.25
 2.1.2 Quantifying Fault Tree Analysis p.26
 2.2 Quantitative risk p.32
 2.2.1 Elements of a Fault Tree p.35
 2.2.2 Fault Tree construction p.39
 2.3 Failure Mode and Effects Analysis(FMEA) p.40
 2.4 Theory of constraints(TOC) p.42
Chapter 3: RADS Applicability
 3.1 Premises p.46
 3.2 Basic buliding blocks of the flamework p.47
 3.3 RADS and the Discreate Even Simulation(DES) p.47
 3.4 RADS Approach p.49
 3.5 Implementation of RADS p.51
 3.6 Limitations of RADS p.52
 3.7 Major Contribution of RADS p.52
Chapter 4: Case study 1 and Risk Mapping
 4.1 Introduction p.54
 4.2 The case study - Supply Chain Risk Management(SCRM):a case study on the autoimotive and electronic industried in Brazil p.55
 4.2.1 Research Methodology p.57 Financial Vulnerability p.59 Strategic Vulnerability p.60 Hazard Vulnerability p.61 Operation Vulnerability p.61
 4.3 Survey results and analysis p.62
 4.4 Conclusion p.69
Chapter 5: Case Study 2 and Fault Tree Analysis
 5.1 Introduction of Threats to critical infrastructure p.70
 5.2 Securing the supply chain p.71
 5.3 The case study: The threat of outsourcing U.S.points operation to any terrorist county supporter - A case study using fault tree analysis(FTA) p.72
 5.3.1 Fault tree analysis and Ploclem formulation p.74
 5.3.2 Quantitative assessment p.77 Notations p.77 Hazard Characterization p.79 HazardIdentification p.80 Exposure assessment p.83
 5.4 Risk characterization p.90
 5.5 Findings and discussion p.90
 5.6 Conclusion p.92
Chapter 6: Case study 3 and the External Supply Chain Risk Driver Competition: TOC Simulation
 6.1 Introduction to supply chain risk drivers p.93
 6.2 The case study: Can the big 3 overtake Toyota? A study based on the theory off constraints(TOC) p.94
 6.3 Problem solving model (PSM) and theory of constraints(TOC p.97
 6.4 The approach using TOC p.99
 6.5 Finding and discussions p.107
 6.6 Conclusion p.109
Chapter 7: Concluding Remarks, Limitations and Future Research
 7.1 Concluding remarks p.110
 7.1.1 p.111
 7.2 Limitations p.111
 7.3 Future research p.112
List of Author's Publication p.113
List of References p.115
List of Appendixes p.131

These are extraordinary times, especially for risk managers. And that is saying something indeed when one considers how the last decade has been marked by a succession of disasters that have all thrust the discipline of risk management into the spot light.
Considering the risks in supply chain, the topic derivers from its importance due to several industry trends currently in place : outsourcing and off-shoring, cost reduction, product variety, lean manufacturing and just-in-time, low inventory levels, information technologies and supply chain security. In this research, we are using a risk assessment diagnostic system (RADS) approach to supply chain risk management (SCRM). First, using a risk mapping for identification and analysis; Second, theory of constraints (TOC) to understand the external risk driver competition; and third, fault tree analysis (FTA) as a quantitative technique to encourage deliberate, analytical, and structured thinking. The three assessment tools were used with the objective to assess and prioritize the risks in supply chain by using three case studies.
The first case study is using Risk Mapping to identify supply chain risk management for the emerging country Brazil. It was investigated the automotive and electronic industries in Brazil and highlighted the urgency of supply chain risk management implementation. As the contribution of this case study, it promotes more preparedness for the two industries to manage the risks of supply chain.
The second case study reveals the supply chain risk driver competition in the global automotive industry, such as Toyota and the Big Three (GM, Ford and Chrysler). Where, Theory of Constraints (TOC) was used to highlight that risks in a competition market can be transformed in an opportunity for leadership.
The third case study reveals security risk in outsourcing a critical infrastructure, such as the U.S. ports operation to any terrorist supporter country. It was used Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to reinforce the security, risk and reliability in supply chains which are having a major impact on ports operation.
This thesis provides managerial insights for business practitioners by using risk assessment tools as practical approach to supply chain risk management through three case studies. Where, the assessment tools recognize the uncertainties in order to enable pro-active management (mitigation) of risk related issues. Furthermore, the used risk assessment tools have in short, medium and long period some benefits in the operational (e.g. deliver time) and financial (e.g. reducing costs) levels. For future research, risk assessment methodologies will be used as a base for developing a system integrated to the MRP system platform for monitoring purchase orders, inventory and demand on transit. This system will amplify risk control and bring capabilities to create emergency plans when necessary, such as business continuity plan.

 本論文は「Risk assessment in supply chain risk : A conceptual framework modeling through case studies (サプライチェーンリスクにおけるリスクアセスメント:ケーススタディを通じた概念フレームワークのモデリング)」と題し、7章より構成されている。

 第2章「An overview of risk management」では、リスクマネジメントにおけるリスク評価の方法論を比較・評価することで、本論文のケース・スタディに用いた方法論、RM(リスクマッピング)、FTA(フォルトツリー解析)、TOC(制約理論)の選択を行っている。
 第3章「RADS applicability」では、本論文が提案するRADS(リスク評価・診断システム)のフレームワークを提示すると同時に、その実効性と限界についての議論を展開している。
 第4章「Case study 1 and Risk Mapping」では、ブラジル企業(自動車産業および電子機器産業)への調査結果の分析に基づき、サプライチェーンにかかわるリスク要因の評価をRM(リスクマッピング)を用いて実施、4つの脆弱性(財務分野、戦略分野、災害分野、オペレーション分野)として抽出・整理している。また、RMの有効性と限界を示している。
 第5章「Case study 2 and Fault Tree Analysis」では、サプライチェーン上、意図的攻撃に対する脆弱性が高い港湾業務のアウトソーシングにおけるリスク評価をFTA(フォルトツリー解析)を用いて実施すると同時に、FTAの有効性と限界を示している。
 第6章「Case study 3 and the External Supply Chain Risk Driver Competition : TOC Simulation」では、日米の自動車産業における競争優位性にかかわるリスク分析・評価をTOC(制約理論)を用いて実施し、TOCを用いたアプローチの有効性と限界を示している。
 第7章「Concluding Remarks, Limitations and Future Research」では、上記の各章で得られた知見に基づきRADSの有効性を検証し結論を導くとともに、本研究課題の今後の展開についても言及している。